A program switched off, then on again
Vietnam first approved a nuclear program in principle in 2009, then shelved it in 2016 as projected costs rose and safety concerns weighed on the decision. For nearly a decade, nuclear power sat outside the country’s planning conversation. That changed in stages. The National Assembly approved resumption of the Ninh Thuan project under Resolution 174 in November 2024. Resolution 189 followed in February 2025, setting special mechanisms for investment and construction. The revised Power Development Plan VIII, issued in April 2025, wrote nuclear into the national generation mix for the first time, at 4 GW to 6.4 GW between 2030 and 2035, with a further 8 GW possible by 2050 for a total near 14 GW. A new Atomic Energy Law took effect in January 2026, designating nuclear power a national strategic priority.
The August decision that changed the structure
On August 24, 2026, the National Assembly voted to separate the Ninh Thuan program into three legally independent projects: a compensation, support and resettlement project, the Ninh Thuan 1 plant at Phuoc Dinh, and the Ninh Thuan 2 plant at Vinh Hai. The vote was emphatic, 476 of 481 participating deputies in favor. Legal analysis by Duane Morris Vietnam explains why the split matters. The original 2009 framework predated today’s investment laws and never established the two plants as independent projects for modern approval procedures. That legacy had become a legal obstacle. As separate projects, each plant can now pursue its own investment policy approval, financing structure, timetable and contracts, while a government steering mechanism continues to coordinate safety, security and shared infrastructure across the program.
Ninh Thuan 1 has a partner. Ninh Thuan 2 has a question
The two plants now sit at different speeds. In March 2026, Russia and Vietnam signed an intergovernmental agreement on Ninh Thuan 1, covering two VVER 1200 reactors with the Leningrad II plant as the reference design, a capacity of about 2.4 GW. Parliament approved the agreement in late August 2026. Nuclear Engineering International reported an USD 8 billion Russian export credit covering up to 85 percent of design and construction costs, with EVN responsible for the remainder. No firm construction schedule has been published.
Ninh Thuan 2 is less settled. It was initially planned with Japanese partners, and Enerdata reported that Japan withdrew from its commitment in December 2025, citing time constraints. Independence may help here rather than hurt: Ninh Thuan 2 can now be structured, financed and tendered on its own merits instead of waiting inside a combined program. Until a technology partner and financing path are named, however, it remains a project with a legal identity and an open future.
Why nuclear, and why now
The demand case is arithmetic. Electricity consumption has grown by more than 6 percent a year since 2015, driven by manufacturing growth, and Vietnam intends to phase down coal over time. Solar and wind are expanding quickly, but they do not produce on command, and the system already manages midday surplus alongside evening peaks. Nuclear offers firm, low carbon output that runs day and night. In the revised plan it is a minority contributor, a few gigawatts beside tens of gigawatts of solar ambition, valued for when it generates rather than how much it generates.
The honest obstacles
Legal foundations are not bankability. Analysis of the August restructuring notes that project bankability, regulatory stability, currency convertibility, nuclear liability and decommissioning obligations still need resolution before international capital and technical partners fully commit. Vietnam must also build what a decade of pause eroded: an experienced regulator, a trained workforce, licensing capacity and a safety culture that officials themselves stress must be absolute. Recent government messaging, reported by Vietstock in September 2026, emphasized modern technology, international safety experience and close coordination among regulators, EVN, Petrovietnam and local authorities. Those are the right priorities. They are also a multi year program of institution building, running in parallel with concrete and steel.
What it does to the rest of the plan
Nuclear’s return does not displace the renewable build out. It changes the background against which that build out is planned. A system expecting firm nuclear output in the 2030s can treat storage, transmission and pumped hydro as complements to a stable core rather than substitutes for one. It also sharpens a sequencing question. The first nuclear electricity is unlikely before the early 2030s on any realistic timetable, while demand grows every year until then. The gap years belong to gas, renewables, storage and the grid. Ninh Thuan is therefore best read as a long term anchor decision taken early, not a solution to this decade’s tight supply margins.
The watch list is short. A standalone investment policy for Ninh Thuan 2, a construction schedule for Ninh Thuan 1, and visible progress on the regulator and workforce will show whether the revival is moving from parliamentary architecture to project execution. Vietnam has now built the legal doorway twice, once in 2009 and once in 2024 to 2026. This time, a reactor agreement and an emphatic parliamentary mandate stand behind it. The conversation has returned. The construction test comes next.
Related reading
- Vietnam’s Grid Code Grows Up: Smart Grids in the JETP Plan
- Bac Ai Pumped Hydro: the Battery Vietnam Is Building into a Mountain
- JETP Money: Has the USD 15.5 Billion Started to Move?
Sources
Duane Morris Vietnam, August 27, 2026, legal analysis of the National Assembly decision separating Ninh Thuan into three independent projects. Enerdata, August 27, 2026, on parliamentary approval for the 2.4 GW Ninh Thuan 1 plant, the March 2026 Russia agreement and revised PDP VIII nuclear targets. Vietstock, September 2026, on nuclear power, energy security and the National Assembly resolutions of November 2024 and February 2025. Nuclear Engineering International, August 2026, on the VVER 1200 design and Russian export credit for Ninh Thuan 1.
